Week of May 17–23, 2026
Every once in a while, a week comes along that's a perfect storm of wrongness. Not a little wrong. All the way wrong.
100% of us predicted Friday's Leading Economic Indicators report would show another negative reading. That's not a statistic — that's unanimity.
The LEI came in positive: up 0.1% in April, breaking a months-long streak of contraction.
Recency bias is stubborn like that. Six months of declining data stops feeling like a trend and starts feeling like gravity — a permanent condition. It isn't. The signal that broke the streak was quiet: a rebound in stock prices, a small uptick in building permits. Not dramatic. But enough. We were so locked onto the drumbeat of bad news that we couldn't imagine it skipping a beat.
Ninety-four percent of us had the Yankees taking the subway series.
The Mets won it 2-1, on a walk-off in the 10th.
I've watched enough baseball to know that momentum is real but not magic. The Yankees came in with the confidence of recent form, and ninety-four percent of us just agreed with that narrative. Tyrone Taylor hit a three-run homer in the ninth to tie it, two Yankees infielders collided trying to make the final play, and Marcus Semien jogged home. Collisions between fielders always happen at the worst possible moment — for someone.
Eighty-five percent of us expected Google to drop Gemini 4 at I/O on May 19.
They announced Gemini 3.5 Flash and Gemini 3.5 Pro instead.
The AI community has a reflex: big keynote equals biggest possible announcement. It's understandable — Google I/O is the most public stage Google has, and Gemini 4 felt inevitable. But inevitability has its own timeline, not ours. The actual keynote leaned hard into agent frameworks and Android. Real progress, real announcements. Just not the headline we were writing before the curtain went up.
Three misses this week. Economic trend extrapolation. Momentum bias dressed as sports analysis. AI conference hype mistaken for a product roadmap. The pattern running through all three — certainty that hardened before the evidence was fully in.
The more unanimous the prediction, the more interesting it is when it breaks. That's the whole game, really.
Next week's questions are live. Come be wrong with us.
This week's resolutions
Culture
- Will the 25th anniversary re-release of Shrek top the U.S. weekend box office May 15–17? → No
- Will the Supreme Court decide before 6/1 in favor of the voter approved Virginia redistricting? → No
- Only 2 women remain in Survivor 50's final 5 — will one of them win it all in Wednesday's finale? → Yes
Markets
- Will Friday's US Leading Economic Indicators report show another negative reading? → No
- After its failed eBay purchase, will GameStop's stock finish next week at its lowest close of the year? → No
- With all the uncertainty around Iran war, will Brent crude finish Friday above $110 a barrel? → No
- Will this week's Fed minutes hint that future interest rate hikes are still on the table? → Yes
- Will Nvidia clear $80 billion in revenue when it reports Wednesday? → Yes
- Will Walmart's Q1 sales meet or beat Wall Street's forecast when it reports Thursday May 21? → Yes
- Will the May 19 report show U.S. pending home sales for April down vs. April 2025? → No
Politics
- Will Trump's disapproval rating hit 60% or higher before June 1, per the NYT poll-of-polls? → Yes
- Will KY Rep Thomas Massie beat his Trump endorsed opponent in the May 19 primary? → No
- Will the 'Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act' receive a Senate committee hearing before Memorial Day? → No
- Will Justice Dept reopen its case against Fed Chair Powell within a week after Senate confirms Warsh? → No
- Will third time be the charm for the college sports SCORE Act, with The House passing it before Fri? → No
- Will the Senate hold an eighth Iran war powers vote next week? → Yes
Sports
- Will the Pistons win the deciding game 7 against the Cleveland Cavs today in Detroit? → No
- Will the Knicks lose a playoff game before the Thunder? Both just swept and dominated their series. → No
- With home court advantage, will the favored Knicks win Game 1 against the Cavaliers tonight? → Yes
- Will Gina Carano's Mixed Martial Arts comeback begin with a win over Ronda Rousey on May 16, 2026? → No
- Will the visiting Yankees win their subway series against the Mets? Series starts on Fri, 5/15. → No
- Will either Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, or Jordan Spieth win this week's PGA Championship? → No
- Will the grand total of points scored in the Spurs/Thunder game on Friday be an even number? → No
- Spurs/Thunder tied 1-1 return to San Antonio for Game 3 on Fri. Will Spurs bounce back with a victory? → No
- Will the home Buffalo Sabres beat the Montreal Canadiens in their deciding Game 7 of their series? → No
- Will OKC Thunder keep on rolling at home with a win over the Spurs tonight in Game 1 of their series? → No
- Will the Knicks beat the visiting Cleveland Cavs again on Thurs after their overtime victory in Game 1? → Yes
- Will a first-time major winner emerge victorious at this week's PGA Championship? → Yes
- Will another longshot of at least 10:1 odds win the Preakness on May 16? KY Derby winner was 23:1! → No
- With -4 leading after 2 rounds, will the winner of the PGA Championship finish at least -10? → No
- Will either Chicago or Atlanta start the WNBA season 5-0 or better after opening 2-0? → No
- Will Tiger Woods announce his retirement from competitive golf within a week after he's done with his rehab? → No
Technology
- Will Nvidia's stock close higher Thursday May 21 after its Wednesday earnings? → No
- Will Google unveil Gemini 4 at the I/O keynote on May 19? → No
- Who'da thunk Zoom would become a verb! Will Zoom the company report a revenue beat in its 5/21 report? → Yes
World
- Will the Long Island Railroad strike be settled before Friday, May 22? → Yes
- Will next week's heat wave bring 100°+ temperatures anywhere along the East Coast? → No
- Will the upcoming Putin-Xi summit produce a new joint statement criticizing the U.S.? → Yes
- Will the U.S. formally indict former Cuban leader Raúl Castro before June 1? → Yes