Will the May 19 report show U.S. pending home sales for April down vs. April 2025?
77% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 30 predictions cast.
The National Association of Realtors reported on May 19, 2026, that U.S. pending home sales rose 1.4% month-over-month in April, pushing the index to 74.8 — its highest reading since November and the third consecutive monthly increase. Year-over-year, pending contracts increased 3.2% compared with April 2025, directly contradicting the premise of the question.
Regional results were mixed on a monthly basis: the Northeast, Midwest, and West posted gains while the South declined. Year-over-year, three of four regions — the Midwest, South, and West — showed improvement, while the Northeast fell. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said buyers were proceeding with cautious optimism despite elevated economic uncertainty and a slight uptick in mortgage rates, and noted that demand could increase further if rates returned to earlier-year levels.
The community gave a 77% probability that April pending sales would be below April 2025 levels — a prediction likely shaped by weak consumer sentiment figures reported earlier in May. The data showed the opposite: a year-over-year increase. The community got this one wrong.