Will this week’s Fed minutes hint that future interest rate hikes are still on the table?
71% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 34 predictions cast.
The Federal Reserve on May 20, 2026, released minutes from its April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, revealing that a majority of officials believed policy tightening could become appropriate if inflation remained persistently above the 2% target. Multiple participants said they preferred removing language from the post-meeting statement that implied an easing bias, a significant hawkish shift in tone from prior meetings.
The Fed held its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% range at the April meeting, but the 8-4 vote was the most dissent recorded since October 1992, reflecting divergent views on the path forward amid tariff-related inflationary pressures. The minutes made explicit that rate increases are no longer off the table.
Following the release, market pricing shifted materially: CME FedWatch data showed traders assigning a 63% probability of at least one rate hike before year-end 2026, with the move nearly fully priced by March 2027. Weeks earlier, the curve had still tilted toward a cut. The Predict Six community predicted YES at 71%, correctly anticipating the hawkish read of the minutes.