With all the uncertainty around Iran war, will Brent crude finish Friday above $110 a barrel?

Brent crude oil settled at approximately $103.94 per barrel on Friday, May 22, 2026, closing more than six dollars below the $110 threshold required for a yes resolution despite an intraday gain of roughly 1.3 percent. Oil prices have remained elevated since the onset of military hostilities between the United States and Iran, but Brent has not sustained above $110 since the initial spike that followed the conflict's outbreak.

The May 22 session saw modest gains attributed to ongoing concern about potential Persian Gulf supply disruptions. Those gains were offset by signals from Saudi Arabia and other major OPEC producers that spare capacity could absorb Iranian supply losses if they materialized. Diplomatic back-channel discussions between Washington and Tehran added to market uncertainty but did not generate the kind of supply shock that would push Brent through $110.

Analysts noted that Iran-related risk premiums remain embedded in crude prices — keeping Brent in a roughly $95 to $108 range over recent weeks — but the absence of direct infrastructure disruption has capped the upside. Brent's last close above $100 was recorded the prior week. The majority of predictors who expected Brent to fall short of $110 were correct.