Some weeks the wrongness is elegant. This was one of them.
Ninety-two percent of us thought the MLB Players Union would answer the owners' salary cap proposal before June 15. That's about as close to a sure thing as this platform gets. The deadline arrived. Nothing came back. The silence was the counter-proposal.
There's a specific kind of collective overconfidence that blooms when something should happen — when the logic of the situation seems to demand a particular outcome. Of course the union would engage. Of course there'd be a response. That's how negotiations work. But the MLBPA has spent decades treating a salary cap the way a river treats a levee — routing around it, not over it. We dressed up history as certainty. The history held.
Over in soccer, 91% of us bet that Argentina, Spain, and France — the world's three highest-ranked national teams — would each win their opening World Cup games. Entirely reasonable. Three dominant programs, three games to win.
Spain drew 1-1 with Cape Verde. Cape Verde, ranked 64th in the world. ESPN called it "the first major World Cup shock" of the tournament.
Here's what we missed: it wasn't one bet. It was three, bundled together. Give each team a 90% win probability — generous — and the combined odds of all three going clean are closer to 73%. We looked at the rankings and stopped there. The beautiful game has a long tradition of making its rankers look foolish at exactly the moment it matters most. Cape Verde was paying attention. The rankings weren't.
The Hurricanes won the Cup in six. Eighty percent of us expected a Game 7 — Carolina was up 3-2, Vegas was home, they just needed one win, and Tortorella himself was insisting his team wasn't done. The stage was set. Elimination nights in Vegas have their own gravity.
Carolina apparently doesn't believe in gravity.
I keep returning to that one. The signals felt right. The scene was dressed for a particular outcome. But sometimes a good team just closes the door — and no amount of narrative pressure keeps it open.
Next week's questions are live. A few of them feel very certain.
I'd sit with that feeling a moment before committing.
— Phil
This week's resolutions
Culture
- After judge rules Baldoni must pay Blake Lively's atty fees, will we know the amount before 6/20? → No
- Likely a blockbuster at the box office, will Toy Story 5's Popcornmeter rating be 90+ on Fri? → Yes
- Will Tay Tay and Travis announce at least what city/town they are getting married in before June 15? → No
- Will A Rod's supposed outreach to J Lo result in an officially reported 'date night' before 6/15? → No
Markets
- Will Brent Crude close below $80 per barrel any day this week given the Hormuz opening? → Yes
- Will the Fed hold interest rates steady at their next meeting that starts on June 17? → Yes
- Will Retail Sales grow in May over April's level in spite of economic headwinds? → Yes
- With SpaceX stock continuing its ascent, will its valuation exceed $3 trillion at mkt close on Fri? → No
- Will SpaceX stock return to earth next week and end below $135/shr IPO price? → No
- Will Housing Starts fall short of the expected units when the report comes out on Tues? → Yes
Politics
- Will we know what in the world has happened to R House member Tom Kean by 6/21? → No
- Will Trump's endorsement of Mike Collins in the Georgia Senate runoff mean victory on Tues for him? → Yes
- Will the RCP poll on 6/15 favor Talarico over Paxton for the TX senate race to replace Conryn? → Yes
- Trump's health is PERFECT, so he says. Will there be legit reporting b4 6/15 that suggest otherwise? → No
Sports
- Will Phil Mickelson/his team disclose the reason for his absence from golf b4 the U.S. Open in June? → No
- WORLD CUP PROGNOSTICATION: Germany scored 7! Will any team in the 4 games on Tues score 4+? → Yes
- WORLD CUP PROGNOSTICATION: Will team USA keep rollin' with a win vs Australia on 6/19 in Seattle? → Yes
- WORLD CUP PROGNOSTICATION: Will the US win Group D of the WC over Paraguay, Australia, & Turkey? → Yes
- WORLD CUP PROGNOSTICATION: Will #1, 2, & 3 Argentina, Spain & France all win their opening WC games? → No
- Cute story about a HS senior predicting 6 yrs ago that Knicks would win in 6 in '06. Will he be right? → No
- Will a Canadian golfer win this week's Canadian Open, the warm up to the following week's US Open? → No
- WORLD CUP PROGNOSTICATION: Will the decibel level at US gm on Fri top 137, highest ever at Seahawks gm? → No
- WORLD CUP PROGNOSTICATION: Will Brazil bounce back from poor gm 1 to beat Haiti by at least 2 goals? → Yes
- After his EPIC mismanagement in Gm 4, will Spurs coach Mitch Johnson get booed by home fans on Sat? → No
- WORLD CUP PROGNOSTICATION: Will African powerhouse Morocco upset Brazil in their opening match on Sun? → No
- Will the Knicks follow their EPIC comeback with a victory on Saturday in San Antonio to win the title? → Yes
- Will the Stanley Cup be decided in 7 games? Hurricanes now up 3-2 with gm 6 on Sun in Vegas. → No
- UFC on White House lawn soon! Will there be political violence that day in DC outside of the ring? → No
- Will the New York Knicks win their first NBA title since 1973? → Yes
- Will the NBA Finals go at least six games? Spurs will need a little giddyup to get there! → No
- Will the MLB Players Union submit a counter proposal by June 15 to the owners' salary cap offer? → No
Technology
- Minnesota just banned prediction market platforms like Kalshi. Will another state do the same b4 6/15? → No
- Will the new spat between Anthropic and the administration be resolved before Thursday? → No
World
- Kind of feels like Iran has the upper hand in negotiations?? When we get to a peace deal, will now Trump critic Tucker Carlson give it a 👍? → No
- With the Nimitz cruising Cuban waters, will the US launch an operation on the island b4 June 15? → No
- Will the U.S. declare a public health emergency tied to Ebola before June 15? → No
- New Iran-US ceasefire requires an Israel & Hezbollah ceasefire too. Will Iran-US deal last thru Wed? → Yes
- Will Iran and US announce by 6/19 that they have agreed in principal on a nuclear deal? → No
- Will the Iran-US ceasefire deal ACTUALLY get signed on Friday? → Yes
- Will the Justice Dept announce an investigation into George Santos' prediction mkt cheating b4 6/15? → No
- With a dicey weather forecast for Sun night, with the White House cage fights have any delays? → Yes
- Will Saudi Arabia sign on to the Abraham Accords b4 6/15 as Trump has requested for an Iran peace deal? → No
- Will the high temp in Western WA hit 95 or higher on Monday? A short but sweat heat wave!! haha → Yes
- With Fed confirming inflation risks and rate increases possible, will Trump criticize Warsh by Fri? → No
- Will US ground troops be sent in to take Kharg Island by 6/15, a place Trump really wants to control? → No
- Will the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season form before June 15? → No