Will the RCP poll on 6/15 favor Talarico over Paxton for the TX senate race to replace Conryn?
50% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 30 predictions cast.
The RealClearPolling average for the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by 0.6 percentage points as of June 15 — Talarico at 44.3 percent, Paxton at 43.7 percent — with the race rated a Toss Up. Paxton emerged from a crowded Republican primary runoff to face Talarico, who is the presumptive Democratic nominee for the seat being vacated by Senator John Cornyn. Individual polls underpinning the RCP average diverged at the margins: a Texas Pulse survey from June 1 to 4 found each candidate at 46 percent among 807 respondents, while a Texas Public Opinion Research poll put Talarico ahead 47 to 44 percent. Both surveys fall within statistical margins of error. The race has attracted national attention as a test of whether competitive Democratic campaigns are viable in statewide Texas contests. Predictors were evenly divided on this outcome, with exactly 50 percent anticipating Talarico would lead the RCP average and 50 percent betting against.