76% of us said the Senate wouldn't pass the immigration funding bill. It passed.
The reasoning was solid, at the time. A handful of Republican senators had gone on record opposing the $1.8 billion DOJ settlement fund buried inside the legislation — the one critics called a slush fund for Trump allies. Real opposition, real names attached. We looked at the revolt and concluded: stalemate. What actually happened was more characteristically Washington — leadership defeated every amendment that could have stripped the fund, members kept their stated positions, and the bill passed anyway, 52-47. The revolt was real. It just had nowhere to go.
70% of us said the Fever wouldn't beat first-place Atlanta on the road. Caitlin Clark vomited at halftime.
Then came out and put up 17 points and 8 assists in an 83-71 win. The narrative going in was easy to read: slow start to the season, a public sideline exchange with her coach making rounds on the internet, road game against the best team in the East. We trusted the framing more than the player. Clark tends to be at her best when things get sideways — not a hot take in retrospect, a pattern. Like a storm that picks up speed when it hits resistance. I've watched this happen enough times to wonder why we keep betting against it.
68% of us said Ulta and Victoria's Secret wouldn't both beat on top-line revenue. Both did, by a comfortable margin.
Ulta posted $3.16 billion against $3.10 billion expected — up 11% year over year. Victoria's Secret came in at $1.56 billion, comparable sales up 13%. The bear case had been built on real headwinds: discretionary spending pressure, tariff uncertainty, neither brand exactly riding a tailwind. What we missed was timing. Consumer behavior had already shifted before these reports hit; the consensus was still reading last quarter's weather. When sentiment is running pessimistic and the underlying data has moved on, the beat tends to surprise — and then feel obvious.
Three categories, one mistake. We keep trusting the story more than the signal under it. The revolt, the sick player, the macro drag. Sometimes the narrative is the data. More often, it's in the way.
Next week's questions are live. Worth a look.
— Phil
This week's resolutions
Culture
- Tiger Woods' DUI case settled without trial before June 1 → No
- Sabrina Carpenter and Bad Bunny publicly confirm dating before June 1 → No
- Scott Pelley quit or fired from 60 Minutes before Friday → Yes
- J Lo and Brett Goldstein dating reported before June 1 → No
- Celebrity Knick fans attend Game 1 in San Antonio → Yes
- Freedom 250 leadership fired or quit before Friday → No
- Backrooms top grossing new movie this weekend → Yes
Markets
- Ulta & Victoria's Secret both beat top-line revenue → Yes
- Lululemon tops Wall Street's revenue estimate → Yes
- Unemployment rate falls below 4.3% → No
- S&P mini-correction, falls at least 5% by Friday → No
Politics
- Democrats' Generic Ballot lead falls below 6.8% by June 1 → No
- Senate passes immigration funding before Sunday → Yes
- Justice Dept pulls or amends the $1.8B DOJ fund before June 15 → Yes
- SCOTUS takes up Alabama House Map issue by June 15 → Yes
Sports
- Jon Rahm announces before June 1 he wants out of LIV Golf → No
- Formal offer to buy Seattle Seahawks reported before June 1 → No
- Zverev beats Mensik in straight sets at French Open → No
- Italian reaches French Open men's final → Yes
- Michelle Wie West makes the cut at Women's US Open → No
- Spurs win Game 7 over Thunder → Yes
- Knicks hold Wembanyama under 20 points in Game 1 → No
- Fever beat first-place Dream in Atlanta → Yes
- Golden Knights beat Hurricanes in Stanley Cup Game 1 → Yes
- Mirra Andreeva wins French Open women's final → Yes
- Sabalenka reaches French finals without losing a set → No
- Spurs win at home in Game 2 of NBA Finals → No
Technology
- Elon Musk appeals OpenAI court loss before June 1 → No
- SpaceX reduces expected IPO range before June 15 → No
- SpaceX IPO valuation meets or exceeds top end ($2 trillion) → No
- Bitcoin closes above $72k on June 5 → No
World