It was so much fun, they get to do it again! Will Paxton beat Cornyn in the May 26 Senate runoff?
60% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 37 predictions cast.
Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff on May 26, 2026, securing the GOP nomination with roughly 63 percent of the vote to Cornyn's 37 percent across approximately 1.38 million ballots cast. The Associated Press called the race about an hour after most Texas polls closed.
Paxton's wide margin was driven substantially by a Trump endorsement issued seven days before the runoff, which came while early voting was already underway. Pro-Cornyn forces outspent the Paxton side more than four to one on advertising, but the financial advantage could not offset the Trump endorsement and the ideological lean of the low-turnout runoff electorate. Cornyn had led in early polling, but a University of Houston survey published in May showed the race shifting sharply toward Paxton. Cornyn's loss was the first renomination defeat for a Texas Republican senator in more than five decades.
Paxton, the former Texas attorney general who survived a 2023 Texas House impeachment and subsequent Senate acquittal, advances to the November general election against Democratic nominee James Talarico, an Austin-area state representative. Democrats viewed Paxton's legal baggage as a potential opening in what has been safely Republican territory.
The Predict Six community put the probability of a Paxton win at 60 percent, correctly anticipating the outcome.