Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu gross $90mm+ domestically its opening weekend, May 22-24?
74% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 31 predictions cast.
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu grossed approximately $82 million domestically during its opening three-day weekend of May 22-24, 2026, falling short of the $90 million threshold the question required. With Monday's Memorial Day figures included, the four-day domestic total reached an estimated $97 million to $102 million, though the conventional three-day opening-weekend benchmark remained below the target.
The opening represented the lowest domestic debut for any Disney-era Star Wars theatrical release. Analysts attributed the performance partly to audience hesitation following mixed reception to recent Star Wars television content, even as the film earned a franchise-best 89 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and strong exit polling on PostTrak. The film topped the domestic box office for the holiday weekend, with no competing release coming close.
Pre-release tracking had projected an opening in the $90 million to $100 million range, making the final three-day figure roughly $8 million to $18 million below the upper end of projections. The Predict Six community was incorrect on this outcome, with 74 percent predicting the film would clear $90 million on the standard three-day measure.