Will the 10-year Treasury yield close below 4.5% on Friday? Currently at 4.56%.
70% of users predicted NO — the community missed this one. 27 predictions cast.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed at approximately 4.45 percent on Friday, May 29, 2026 — below the 4.5 percent threshold and down from the 4.56 percent level at the time the question was set. The move represented the note's lowest close in more than two weeks.
Two simultaneous developments drove the rally in Treasuries. Reports emerged Friday that the United States and Iran had agreed in principle to extend their ceasefire by 60 days and open nuclear negotiations, raising the prospect of eventually reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. The news pushed oil prices lower, directly easing near-term inflation expectations.
Separately, the BEA released April PCE price index data — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — that came in softer than some market projections. Core PCE rose 3.3 percent year over year, providing further relief to rate-sensitive fixed-income investors. The two factors together were enough to push yields through the 4.5 percent level before the close.
The community assigned only a 30 percent probability to this outcome, making the 10-year yield close one of the more significant market surprises of the week. Respondents appeared to underestimate the bond market's sensitivity to Middle East ceasefire developments.